Longtime observations show that epidemical situation in Republic of Armenia has been
and d continues to be difficult /problematic/, particularly in ters of intestinal infections. The natures
of infectious deseases as well as their epidemiological patterns have been changed.
Revelation of the periodicity and the anpalysis of the peaks in frequency will help us to make possible
previssions and insert goal-orientation into the epidemiological control.
Taking into consideration etiological, clinical and epidemiological features of intestinal infections during
the constal analysis of intestinal infection deseases /1977-2011/ over the separate infections of intestinal
group. We use the method of spectral analysis of the group of harmony and time /variation.
We have used the spectral analysis method of the time-series to clarify real epidemiological pattern and to
make predictions, and with the help of Byui-Balo's hidden frequency's revelation method we have redused
the probability of a possible error bringing the resulted frequency close to the real, natural biorythm.
Spectral analysisyears of time series, which characterize the avute intestinal infections, overoll morbidity of
34 years allows us to conform /establish/ multirythmical characteristics of epidemiological dynamics. It
turns out, that there is a specific periodicity for the deseases of intestinal group with separate nozological
gorms.
Thus, theoretically, with the help of the above mentioned method, the following periodicity has been
received for the total group of intestinal deseases with /- (3,1+2,8) – (3,8+2,2) - 5 - 4,6 - 2,2 - 5,1 - 2,1 - 2,3
–year interval, which coincides with the practice activities with - 6 - 6 - 5 - 5 - 2 - 5 - 2 - 2 – regularity.
The investigated regularities predict approximate, probable periods /times/ of the risk. It is well known, that
the periodic increase and decrease of the morbidity is different for the different germs of the infections of
intestinal group. It also has different subspecies of the germ .
It should be noted that increases /peaks/ and falls have general tendency to decrease and stabilize for the all
intestinal infections in terms of cumulative, namely there are on a lower level, comparate with the previous
periodicity.
Biological cycle also depends on climatic factors associated with the improvement of conditions for
development of the germ.
Using spectral analysis of time series, risk periods of intestinal separate infections were determined for
Gyumri, which will be if not flashing, then probably years of high morbidity. According to previsions made
by us, the frequency of separate infections has the following schedule:
Only permanent moniitoring and current and deep epidemiological research gives the opportunity to reveal
distinct epidemiological regularities.
Computer mapping programs, especially Arc View GIS geographical informational system gives such an
opportunity. With the help of digital maps resulted from this program, it is possible to get regional and
allocation of infections, prevalence of indicators. it's also possible to determine the extent of contamination,
which gives the opportunity to make epidemic measures intentional and effective to save means and
resources.
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